Bet And Win On Your Favorite Sports With Happistar – Most sports bettors have heard of expected value, but few know what it really means. Far fewer apply this concept to betting.

Here’s everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s the most important factor for your sports betting ROI.

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The simplest expected value in sports betting is a method of measuring the odds difference between the bettor’s expectations and the sportsbook’s expectations.

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The oddsmaker assigns odds by betting lines, and bettors can see all the moneylines, point spreads, totals and other bet types assigned to them. Almost all legitimate US it. Sportsbooks exclusively use what are called favorite odds, with positive numbers (e.g. +100, +222, etc.) assigned to the underdogs and negative numbers (e.g. -120, -155, etc.).

In this system, the line number increases as the probability of winning decreases, and the line number decreases as the probability of winning increases.

This means that the +100 underdog has a better chance of winning than the +240 underdog (according to the book). Conversely, a -190 favorite has a better chance of winning than a -120 favorite.

For example, if the book specifies a team like the Seahawks against the Patriots, the +100 line translates to a 50% win rate or coin toss.

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If bettors believe that the Seahawks actually have a greater than 50% chance of winning the game, they will assign a positive expected value (+EV). If the bettor believes the team has less than a 50% chance of winning, they assign a negative expected value (-EV).

Bettors who are weighted by expected value offer a fundamental advantage over most other bettors and are one of the few edges they can take against sportsbooks.

One of the common mistakes that newbie sports bettors make is to look at the NFL odds on Sunday morning hoping they will rumble through the board in the last minute or pick the winner of the day. Those looking for expected value or +EV consider the lines (and by extension odds) that odds makers offer on each game as quickly as possible and try to figure out if a bet is over or undervalued.

The best NFL bettors make a habit of looking for value early in the week. By Thursday, oddsmakers had adjusted their lines and in an efficient market like the NFL, value betting is only possible for a short time before the market crashes.

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Positive expected value betting is a basic method of sports betting and is often under-utilized by casual bettors, often referred to as “the masses”.

Casual bettors are similar to roulette players who want to call their color. + EV bettors are stock brokers who want to sell high and buy low.

As much as most sports bettors overestimate their betting skill, just hoping to find a winner will not result in long-term wins. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas (and now over a dozen other states) have spent decades evaluating hundreds of thousands of sporting events. They use the best odds makers, programs and algorithms to find the most effective lines. Even the most profitable bettors “only” win about 55%-56% of their bets.

There is a reason that many sportsbooks in Las Vegas, New Jersey, Illinois, Colorado, Pennsylvania and more offer their customers betting bonuses, free drinks and other perks. They will get their money back.

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Almost all retail and online sportsbooks charge a minimum commission of ​​5% (4.54% to be exact) on betting lines, also known as vigorous or “cradle”. For example, if the sportsbook gives both teams a 50% chance of winning, both teams’ lines will be -110 (implied odds 52.38%) rather than +100. This means that bettors are basically paying an extra 5% fee on all bets, win or lose. Bettors need to win 52.38% of their bets to break even.

That being said, sportsbooks have historically made a profit of between 5% and 8% of the total amount bet. In other words, sports betting offers players the best chance to win in all legal forms of gambling. Few sports bettors make significant money in the long run, but smart betting can at least keep bettors playing recreationally.

To do this, bettors must think critically. Expected value betting does not guarantee long-term success, but gambling without EVs guarantees long-term failure.

To use another analogy, +EV buyers are like smart supermarket shoppers. Intelligent shoppers notice when the price of an item is higher than on a previous visit, and seek an alternative accordingly. In fact, the same customer buys discounted items that he might not otherwise have bought.

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Sports betting works the same way. Instead of betting on a team that has a very good chance to win but needs to bet a significant amount, +EV bettors shop across the online sports betting industry looking for the biggest discrepancies between what they think will happen with their betting lines and what is in. The book. , mean.

As an example of a specific sports bet, let’s say the sportsbook lists the Detroit Lions as favorites to win the -150 money line over the Chicago Bears. A typical bettor thinks the Lions will win, so they bet on Detroit. Smart bettors will realize that the sportsbook line implies that the Lions have a 60% chance of winning. They also believe the Lions will win, but think it’s much less likely than the book says. In this scenario, they instead see the Bears, a +130 one-line underdog, which translates to a 43.48% win rate.

+ EV bettors think the Lions are the better team and look like they have a better chance to win, but believe the Bears have a better 43.58% chance to win.

The value is on the bears, so +EV bettors bet on Chicago. Sometimes you can find +EV during a game as bettors look for an edge at sportsbooks that offer in-game betting. In short, expected value bettors are not what they think will win, but what scenario

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; + EV bettors sometimes bet on teams they expect to lose if they have value.

Deriving the odds of a betting line may seem like a complicated formula, but it is actually the simplest component of EV betting.

For US odds, if the line in the book is a positive value, the formula asks to divide 100 by the line number plus 100. It looks like this:

So if the game line in the book is +110, divide 110 by 110 plus 100. Bettors should remember to add 100 to the line first. It will look something like this:

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Converting negative odds is just as easy. This time we divide the line by the line and add 100. It looks like this:

For example, with -190: Again, the formula calls for adding the two parts of the denominator (or the second half of the equation) before dividing the numerator.

From there, bettors can place +EV bets, not just predicting whether a team will win, lose or cover, but comparing the odds of that event against the odds in the book.

Bettors can see from the example above that the odds do not add up to 100%. In the Bears-Lions example at the top of the page, Chicago (+130 / 43.48% win rate) and Detroit (-150 / 60% win rate) add up to 103.48%.

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Or, as the previous “even” betting example shows, both teams are assigned a line with odds of -110 or 52.38% respectively. This is because cradle applies to almost all bets.

Seemingly small fees add up over the long run, making it difficult for sports bettors to break even and earn much smaller returns. A true even bet, such as a coin toss, should be +100 heads and +100 tails. Instead, the sportsbook lists a Super Bowl coin toss bet of -110 for both heads and tails.

Because Super Bowl coin toss bettors are roughly heads and tails, sportsbooks are essentially guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome. Specifically, the odds of heads or tails are 50%, and sportsbooks “pay” 52.38% for bets, so this is a classic example of -EV betting.

More traditional sports betting works in the same way. For example, if a book is covered by the favorite and not covered by the favorite, and the number of bidders is almost even, you can make money.

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Of course, not all sports betting is a coin toss. These are exactly what +EV bettors are looking for while keeping a cool head and patiently waiting for unobtrusive betting lines.

Unfortunately, bettors have no sure way of knowing exactly which bets have a positive expected value. Some bettors trust their algorithms, others keep an eye on bad news, and some bettors can win because they have a little trusted feel for the market and know when to “buy cheap”. Closing line.

As mentioned earlier, the book sets the line based on decades of experience and significant financial and human resources. Sportsbook operators use this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create lines that the average bettor cannot replicate with nearly equal accuracy. For the majority of sports bettors